So if you are a dictator-in-waiting, it's not a good idea to sneak out of your own country and go to Disneyland.
Fixing your facial features to ensure dynastic succession might be creepy, but so far has proven to be effective. While Mesquita has forecast that certain countries like China will grow more democratic in the coming years, he does not predict the death of the North Korean dictator will push that country in the same direction.
He has boosted his popularity by relying on a steady supply of domestic adversaries to cast as the latest “enemy of the people.” But this has also polarized his society to such an extent that even the security services, the traditional bulwark of Turkish unity, have become politicized and weakened at a time when the country faces violence on multiple fronts—along with the implosion of Turkey’s relationships in Europe.
Amid a divisive campaign ahead of the April 16 referendum, terrorist groups ranging from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to the Islamic State exploit these divisions to turn Turks even more bitterly against each other.
It may be a reasonable gamble from his perspective; after all, it has brought him success in the past.His political power is masqueraded as personal auctoritas; his power achieved through his military supremacy passed off as rule by universal consent to use a historical clich, Augustus was the archetypal master of spin.With the gift of hindsight, even the staunchest of revisionists can acknowledge that the reign of Augustus was a clear turning point in European History whether or not this change was a steady evolutionary measure or a rapid revolutionary one is subject to much scrutiny.Today, as evidenced by surveys measuring expected support for Erdogan in the referendum, Turkey is about evenly split between pro- and anti-Erdogan factions: the former, a conservative right-wing coalition, believes that Turkey is a paradise; the latter, a loose group of leftists, secularists, liberals, Alevis (liberal Muslims), and Kurds, think they live in hell.For years, Turkey’s vaunted national-security institutions, including the military and the police, had helped the country navigate its perilous political fissures, first in the civil war-like street clashes pitting the left against the right in the 1970s, and later in the full-blown Kurdish nationalist insurgency and terror attacks led by the PKK in the 1990s.